Growing demand for AI-focused memory is creating significant challenges for the global PC industry, according to a new report from International Data Corporation (IDC). Rising memory costs are straining supply chains and threatening to reduce shipments while pushing consumer prices higher. IDC projects that under its most pessimistic scenario, global PC shipments could decline by as much as 8.9% in 2026 if memory prices continue to rise. The firm also notes that at least one consumer-facing RAM brand has already exited the market, and warns that other smaller manufacturers may face heightened operational and financial pressure in the months ahead.
The report highlights a shift in memory production priorities among major manufacturers. Conventional DRAM and NAND used in PCs, smartphones, and other consumer electronics are being deprioritized, with a growing focus on memory for AI data centers. This includes high-bandwidth memory and high-capacity DDR5 modules tailored to support AI workloads. As manufacturers redirect resources to meet demand in the AI sector, the supply of PC-grade RAM has tightened, driving up costs. PC makers, in turn, are beginning to pass these price increases on to consumers. Modular PC maker Framework has already adjusted pricing for some laptops and components, warning that further increases are likely as the market adjusts. IDC estimates that under its worst-case outlook, RAM prices could rise between six and eight percent in 2026.
The timing of the memory crunch adds pressure to so-called AI PCs, which were expected to help the PC market recover following a post-pandemic slowdown. These systems, designed with neural processing units to run AI models locally, require larger amounts of memory than conventional PCs, leaving them particularly vulnerable to rising RAM costs. IDC also warns that the impact of higher memory prices is not limited to PCs. Global smartphone shipments could fall by as much as 5.2% in 2026, and the average selling price of smartphones may rise by six to eight percent under the same pessimistic scenario.
Large technology firms such as Apple and Samsung are expected to be more resilient in navigating the memory shortage due to strong cash reserves and long-term supply agreements. These companies are likely to maintain more stable pricing for a year or two, absorbing fluctuations in memory costs while continuing product launches. For smaller manufacturers, however, the report indicates that elevated memory prices could limit their ability to introduce new products or experiment with innovative designs, while simultaneously increasing costs for existing offerings. Analysts suggest that the memory shift toward AI infrastructure may continue to reshape the consumer electronics market, influencing supply chains, pricing strategies, and product planning for both PC and smartphone manufacturers.
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