Pakistan has finalized a comprehensive five-year economic plan, the 5Es National Economic Transformation Plan (2024-29), aiming to expand the country’s economy to $1 trillion by 2035. Spearheaded by the Ministry of Planning, this initiative also targets a literacy rate increase to 70% and a reduction in poverty incidence by 13% within five years. The plan will soon be formally unveiled by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, marking a shift from previous strategies proposed by UK-based economist Stefan Dercon.
The 5Es Plan has been developed as a roadmap to address longstanding economic challenges while positioning Pakistan for sustainable growth. Key goals include fostering a knowledge-based tech economy, boosting exports, addressing climate change, and advancing social empowerment. The ambitious initiative comes as skepticism grows over the effectiveness of earlier frameworks, including Dercon’s “home-grown” fiscal strategy. Despite the resources invested in Dercon’s plan, the government remains divided over whether to launch both documents simultaneously.
The plan’s vision hinges on achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.8% over the next five years. Under a “business as usual” trajectory, the economy would remain below $500 billion in the coming decade. Federal Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal underscored the transformative aspirations behind the plan, posing the critical question: “Do we know where Pakistan will be in 2047?”
One of the major hurdles to achieving the plan’s objectives is the recently erected Rs39 billion social media firewall. Initially designed to curb anti-government propaganda, the firewall has hindered the growth of the information technology sector. Experts warn that Pakistan cannot meet its IT export target of $5 billion by 2029 or its broader export goal of $60 billion without removing restrictions on digital connectivity. These constraints are further compounded by outdated IT policies, which are at odds with the plan’s goals to produce 75,000 IT graduates annually, expand broadband subscriptions to 135 million, and create over 100 software technology parks.
The E-Pakistan segment of the plan envisions a dramatic expansion of digital infrastructure, including a target of 100 million next-generation mobile subscribers and at least 10% of users on 5G networks by 2029. It also sets its sights on developing Pakistan’s first unicorn company—valued at over $1 billion—by fostering innovation and scaling local enterprises.
Additionally, the plan addresses environmental concerns, pledging to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and boost renewable energy’s share to 10%. Other infrastructure goals include increasing the railway’s share of passenger and freight transport and completing the $7 billion Mainline-I project under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The 5Es Plan is also a social reform blueprint, aiming to improve the Human Development Index by increasing universal healthcare coverage, enhancing education completion rates, and creating 1.5 million jobs annually. It emphasizes reducing Pakistan’s technological lag and boosting industrial productivity to remain competitive in regional and global markets.
While the plan outlines an ambitious path forward, its success hinges on dismantling existing barriers to progress, particularly in IT and digital connectivity. With significant national challenges like climate change, water scarcity, and food insecurity looming, the stakes for implementing the 5Es framework are higher than ever.
