Pakistan risks losing $1.8 billion in the next two years if the auction of frequency spectrum continues to face delays, Jazz CEO Aamir Ibrahim has warned Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. With existing allocations nearly consumed, Ibrahim stressed that network congestion is worsening and service quality is being compromised for millions of users. He cautioned that any indefinite delay or a failed auction caused by weak policy measures could result in economic losses of $1.8 billion by 2027, rising to $4.3 billion by 2030 if the situation persists. He linked these risks directly to the prime minister’s Digital Pakistan vision, which he said stands threatened without urgent action on spectrum release.
In his communication to the prime minister, Ibrahim noted that mobile data consumption has surged by more than 45% in just two years, while smartphone penetration has doubled, now accounting for over half of all subscribers. Yet, despite this rapid growth, spectrum assignments to operators have remained stagnant since 2021. He warned that Pakistan’s spectrum allocation of just 270MHz is far below the Asia-Pacific regional average of 700MHz, leaving the country among the lowest in the region. On a per-user basis, Pakistan’s allocation is less than one-fourth of Japan’s, underscoring how capacity shortages are directly fueling user dissatisfaction. Operators, he said, have exhausted all technical options to stretch existing resources, but congestion will only intensify if no new spectrum is released.
Jazz, which controls around 37% of the market, is the largest operator in the country. It is followed by Zong with 25%, Telenor Pakistan with 23%, and Ufone, a PTCL subsidiary, with 13%. The looming PTCL-Telenor merger, if approved, would reshape the industry by creating the single largest market player. Ibrahim expressed concern that ongoing litigation and regulatory uncertainty tied to this merger has stalled the 5G Spectrum Auction Advisory Committee’s work. Minister for Information Technology Shaza Fatima Khawaja has also stated that the Competition Commission of Pakistan’s pending verdict on the merger is a key reason for the holdup.
Highlighting PTA data, Ibrahim emphasized that spectrum shortages not only impact everyday users but also risk undermining Pakistan’s broader economic future. Digital infrastructure is critical for education, healthcare, IT exports, freelancers, and overall growth, and poor spectrum management could derail progress across all these fronts. Telecom companies have further pointed to rising operational costs, especially spectrum license payments in foreign currency, which have increased from 13% of revenues in 2018 to nearly one-fourth by 2023. Despite clear directions from the prime minister last year to expedite spectrum release, no concrete steps have been taken towards drafting a new policy or issuing an Information Memorandum for the auction.
Ibrahim urged that a predictable, investment-friendly framework and early release of spectrum could unlock new opportunities for digital inclusion, boost GDP, and support exports. His warning comes just days before Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb is set to chair the sixth meeting of the Advisory Committee, where operators will again press for urgent government action. However, industry insiders remain skeptical, stating that an auction is unlikely to take place this year, raising concerns that service quality will deteriorate further as demand for mobile data continues to surge.
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