The release of the Household Integrated Economic Survey 2024–25 on New Year’s Day 2026 has brought renewed attention to Pakistan’s education crisis through data drawn from the country’s first fully digital post Census 2023 survey. Covering 32,000 households nationwide, the findings show that 20.3 million children remain out of school, underlining how household level financial pressures directly shape education outcomes. Rather than presenting the issue as an abstract policy challenge, the survey frames it in everyday arithmetic, showing how limited income is exhausted by basic needs long before education expenses can be met.
Interpreting the HIES data through the lens of a Rs100 daily household budget highlights what the report describes as a steady countdown to zero. Of every Rs100 earned, Rs37 is spent on food and beverages, reflecting the largest single expense for families. Housing, rent, electricity, gas, and other utilities immediately claim another Rs26. Together, these two categories absorb over 62% of household income, forming what analysts describe as a survival wall. By the time these non negotiable costs are covered, only Rs37 remains for all other needs. Education receives just Rs2.50 from the original Rs100, leaving families to stretch the remaining amount across transport, healthcare, clothing, and emergencies. This imbalance illustrates how the cost of sustaining daily life consistently outweighs the capacity to invest in a child’s schooling.
Economists note that spending patterns vary across income groups, but the underlying pressure is most severe among lower income households. Quintile based analysis divides the population into five equal segments, with the bottom 40% facing the harshest constraints. According to Dr Sajid Amin Javed of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, a declining share of education spending does not always signal neglect, as higher income groups may see stable education costs shrink as a proportion of rising incomes. However, among poorer households, stagnant wages and food inflation mean nearly all income is absorbed by essentials. For these families, the persistently high share of food expenditure is a clearer indicator of distress than education ratios alone, as survival needs leave little room for future oriented spending.
Despite these pressures, the survey shows a modest national improvement, with the out of school rate declining from 30% to 28%. Even so, around 20 million children remain outside the education system, including 20% who never enrolled and 8% who dropped out after initial attendance. Researchers attribute this mixed outcome to household resilience and community based options rather than increased public investment, as government education spending remains at 0.8% of GDP. Inflation has forced families to reduce education spending from nearly 4% to under 2.5% of household budgets, largely to meet food and utility costs. Provincial data reveals stark contrasts, with Punjab recording a 21% out of school rate, Sindh 39%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 28%, and Balochistan 45%, while Gilgit Baltistan shows relatively better outcomes linked to community engagement.
The digital HIES data makes clear that education outcomes cannot be separated from the broader cost of living environment. When nearly two thirds of household income is locked into food and utilities, even small increases in prices can push education spending out of reach. The arithmetic captured in the survey shows how families are forced to sacrifice long term mobility to meet immediate needs, reinforcing cycles of poverty. As long as the survival wall remains fixed around basic necessities, the gap between access to education and household capacity is likely to persist, leaving millions of children outside classrooms despite incremental gains in awareness and enrollment.
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