JPMorgan analysts expect bitcoin to climb as high as $165,000 before the end of this year, citing a shift in its valuation compared to gold and a surge in demand from retail investors. The projection, made in a Wednesday report led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, is based on bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted ratio to gold, which has fallen below 2.0. According to the bank, bitcoin currently absorbs 1.85 times more risk capital than gold. To align with the roughly $6 trillion invested in gold through ETFs, bars, and coins, bitcoin’s current $2.3 trillion market capitalization would need to increase by about 42%, implying a price of $165,000.
The valuation model highlights a sharp turnaround from last year, when bitcoin was considered overvalued by $36,000 at the end of 2024. Today, analysts estimate that it is undervalued by around $46,000 compared to gold when adjusted for volatility. They argue that this suggests meaningful room for upside, noting that investors continue to seek alternatives to traditional stores of value. The so-called “debasement trade” has gained momentum, driven by concerns over government debt, inflation, weakening fiat currencies, and geopolitical risks.
JPMorgan’s report points to strong inflows into both bitcoin and gold ETFs, with retail investors playing a central role. Since late 2024, cumulative ETF flows have risen significantly, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment. Bitcoin ETF inflows accelerated earlier in 2025 before slowing in August, while gold ETF inflows strengthened in recent weeks, narrowing the gap between the two assets. Institutional participation has largely come through CME futures, but analysts note futures positioning remains weaker than ETF inflows, underscoring retail dominance in this cycle.
As gold prices rallied in recent months, analysts argue bitcoin has become more attractive relative to the precious metal. In August, JPMorgan projected a year-end bitcoin target of $126,000. The revised estimate of $165,000 reflects gold’s recent surge and the narrowing relative valuation gap. This forecast aligns with a broader trend of bullish outlooks across the market, with some firms and analysts suggesting bitcoin could even test the $200,000 mark in the months ahead. Currently, bitcoin is trading around $119,000, according to The Block’s price index, keeping investor attention firmly fixed on the trajectory of the digital asset as the year draws to a close.
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